Survey Says ...

An apparent result of a political survey in the form of an infographic is circulating in Facebook lately being shared and posted by some netizens with this caption: “Nagsalita na ang masa, sa looban (sic) lang ng tatlong buwan, batid ng lahat kung sino ang nararapat ihalal sa darating na eleksyon.” The post is insinuating that the Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) Federation of Occidental Mindoro allowed if not commissioned a pre-election survey supposedly conducted on its members.

By the way, Hon. Marffin Tuscano Bergonia Bayog Dulay, SK Federation President of Sablayan confirmed to me that there is no such survey made in the municipality for the purpose or perhaps it was exclusive only in selective areas. To be fair, this space is open for Hon. Trisha Kay Fabic-Mancilla’s reaction to settle things up and rest assured that I will insert it here in the form of a tailpiece. 

The infographic seemingly has SK official seal or logo on it so unless there’s a disclaimer from the provincial federation president about this, I will assume that this is indeed legitimate. I just hope that the OPs are mature and responsible enough for what they have posted. Those who posted or shared it are certain Bhea Pacheco, Harry Perez, Jobert Lorenzo, and Mary Cris B. Vibal. With very high probability, all are fictitious names. Remember their handles and be warned about what they post next time. 

I have no qualms about the personalities or the numbers in the survey per se. My point is, the disclosure was not supplemented with the necessary information and the original posters and/or sharers failed to be transparent about it. I made attention (or patol) to this because of such negligence and lack of accountability and transparency on the pollsters’ part spells lack of accountability. This impression of mine, of would only change if the survey people supply us with those important verifiable data if they wish. If not, of course, that’s at their discretion. I cannot do anything about that.

But generally speaking, surveys, especially those conducted by non-experts can be manipulated in many diverse methods. Many of the unscrupulous instigators of these polls or surveys want to create a public impression that a certain politician or a political group is about to lose or win come election day. The posters concluded, “Naway magtuloy-tuloy na ang pagbukas ng kamalayan ng taong bayan at maging responsabli (sic) sa naayong desisyon sa pagluluklok sa isang lingkod bayan na may PUSO, TALINO AT DANGAL.” It is very obvious, they are close-in supporters of those leading in the supposedly SK Provincial Federation survey that is said to have ensued from September 15 to December 15, 2021.

I am addressing this piece, not to the instigators of the project but to the unaligned and silent majority from the ranks of my readers. 

The professed SK Federation provincial survey has it that for congress, Peter Alfaro is leading at 44.34%, followed by Philip Ramirez with 24.12%, Bunny Villarosa-Kalaw garnering 12.40%, Noli Leycano with 10.03%, Odie Tarriela getting 5.27%, and lastly, Jojo Melgar 3.84%. For the gubernatorial position, Cong. Josephine Sato gathered 65.75% while Gov. Ed Gadiano, 34.25%. For vice-governor, the survey says that Mayor Eric Constantino got 52.41% and SP Diana Apigo-Tayag, 47.49%. 

Fine. 

Notably, it did not mention in the posts who conducted the survey, how many respondents were, where are they from when the survey was conducted, and even what questions were asked of the respondents. Without such verifying information, this survey is dubious if not an outright hoax.  The absence of these details in surveys and its result is already suspicious. It can be fake as the identity of the social media trolls in our midst. Who would expect courageous truthful things from cowardly hiding posers?

In the natural course of things, polls or surveys are not designed to be prognostic or predictive. They are just a spur-of-the-moment decision at that precise time, therefore, things can change and they often do change. Also, randomness is the key to surveys. Let us take a closer look at this supposed SK survey on its member throughout the province. How could the SK members represent the whole 289,953 plus voters of Occidental Mindoro? 

The reputation of the entity which conducted the survey (including those who publicized the result) matters the most. To put it more succinctly, no surveys are authoritative and this can be tricky. The public disclosure must include what type of sampling they have employed (e.g., random sampling, weighted sampling, etc.) and what techniques they engaged to generate those samples. If the sampling system is incorrectly applied, then the result of the pre-election survey would be erroneous, if not entirely false.

Pre-election surveys are important barometers for all political camps so that they could adjust or alter their campaign plans and strategies for the better. To have a bird’s eye view of their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of the day. But as thinking voters and independent-minded citizens and netizens, we must look at it through critical lenses. The numbers laid cannot be gospel truths but just something forced on us by the politicians usually the traditional ones and their lackeys.

This will be the first and the last time I will tackle the subject for the same issues like this will go on as the election comes near. I do not want to be repetitive but still, I will look for the same concerns I emphasized here.

In general, without direct reference to this case, I firmly believe that unscientific pre-election surveys tend to mislead the voting public and create a false sense of the political situation. Surveys, as we all know, can be used as propaganda artillery against certain rivals. But I am not outrightly saying that this is true in this particular case.

Let me conclude this with this question from Robert Orben: "Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the surveys were right?"

Ponder on, fellows. Critically and sensibly for we are not mere guessing Family Feud contestants. 

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Photo: Sophia M. Novio